IAEA Expected to Detail Iranian Nuclear Efforts

“The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to release its most explicit charges to date that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Diplomats who have seen the report, which will be released this week, said that among the most incriminating facts are that Iran developed computer models for a nuclear warhead and that it constructed a large steel container to carry out tests with high explosives that could be used in nuclear weapons. Western powers have long suspected that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, but Tehran has insisted its program is peaceful and the IAEA has until now has held by back from making any definitive conclusions. The diplomats argue that the new IAEA study offers no other explanation for Iran’s efforts other than that it is developing a nuclear weapon. The U.S. will likely use the report to lobby the international community to impose new sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, Israeli President Shimon Peres warned on Saturday night that an attack on Iran is “more and more likely.” (Media Line News Services – http://www.themedialine.org/elite/registration.asp – I recommend your subscription – JLR)

The above report of the IAEA confirms what Israel has known for a number of years. Yet, the questions remain – what is to be done about it and who is to do it?

When Israel’s leaders rattle their sabers as Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak did publicly this past week calling upon Israel to be ready to strike Iranian missile silos and weapons installations, we have to ask how serious Israel really is given the catastrophic implications that such actions would unleash.

In response to Bibi’s and Barak’s statements, Hezbollah’s leader Hasan Nasrallah warned that if Israel attacks Iran, Hezbollah (Iran’s proxy in Lebanon) will launch 20,000 missiles at Tel Aviv, and though Hamas has not also made such a statement, we cannot eliminate the possibility that Iran’s proxy in Gaza will not also launch missiles at Tel Aviv, Ashdod and Ashkelon.

Bibi’s and Barak’s speeches may have been merely political rhetoric to shore up their get-tough bonafides following the Gilad Shalit deal with Hamas, an exchange which emboldened Arab and Muslim extremists, enhanced popular support to the increasingly unpopular Hamas, and softened Israel’s deterrent presence in the Middle East.

It is noteworthy (and comforting to me, at least) that all the heads of Israel’s intelligence services have strongly advised against Israel attacking Iran, not only because Israel likely would not succeed in its mission in destroying all Iran’s missile silos and nuclear production facilities (some are deep underground and others are presumed to be hidden), but an attack could instigate a wider war including other Arab nations against Israel as well as increased threats of terrorist attacks against American, Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide.

The peace activist Shlomo Avineri wrote this past week that he is certain that Israel will NOT attack Iran on the basis of the above and on the principle that if one is going to launch a surprise attack one doesn’t talk about it in advance. And so, if Israeli leaders are sane and calculating, which I believe (or want to believe) they are, then all this talk is nothing more than talk.

That being said – Iran indeed poses a real threat to the State of Israel and moderate forces in the Middle East, and because of this the United States and the Quartet should be the ones on the front lines confronting that threat, not Israel.

Shaalu shalom Yerushalayim – Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!