The more we know from security analysts and military experts, the greater will be the clarity of our thinking about achievable goals in Israel’s war with Hamas and how Israel wages war, and the clearer we will be in our values as we wade through the pain, sorrow, and grief after October 7.
I have written twice in this blog after the pogrom since October 7, the first of which I posted the photos of two young sisters (ages 25 and 22) who grew up in my synagogue’s elementary school and were murdered at the music festival on October 7. What happened to our Jewish brothers and sisters shook Israel and the Jewish world to our foundations in a way we’ve not experienced as a people since the end of the Shoah in 1945. Even in the aftermath of the 1973 War of Yom Kippur when Israel was existentially threatened by Egypt’s and Syria’s surprise attack, we as a people have not been so shaken. We thought after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 that “never again” would we be vulnerable to the butchery of savage antisemites. October 7 showed the depths of human depravity and that we remain vulnerable, even though we have Israel today.
Our desire for revenge and retaliation engulfs so many of us in these initial weeks, and though I feel all of it like many of you, as time passes and as I learn and listen to Israeli intelligence and military experts about achievable goals that Israel’s IDF can accomplish against Hamas, and as I worry about the lives most specially of the 220 Israeli hostages, I am beginning to understand tactically the options facing Israel and what might be possible, without (of course) any guarantees.
This week, I participated in a webinar sponsored by J Street and hosted by J Street’s CEO and President Jeremy Ben-Ami. I had written to Jeremy the day before because I have felt so deeply torn, tortured, and confused about what Israel has experienced and what it is planning to do in its massive military build-up on the Gaza border. Jeremy suggested that I tune into the next morning’s webinar with two Israeli security analysts, Nimrod Novick and Noa Shusterman-Dvir. I’m glad I did (see link below). What follows is a summary of what they shared with the hundreds of participants on the webinar. Their clarity of thinking, experience, understanding of the military and strategic options facing Israel, and their cool analytical minds helped to clarify my own thinking and moral confusion, and I am grateful to them.
The two analysts asked and addressed the essential questions and challenges facing Israel in these days, and they analyzed the multiplicity of responses upon which the Israeli war cabinet and the IDF must deliberate and decide. They said there are three essential goals in this war: to save the 220 hostages, to eliminate the military and governing capacity of Hamas over Gaza, and to plan for the days, months and years after the war is won.
The first question Jeremy posed is whether they thought it is feasible to eliminate Hamas’ militarily and governing power and what they expected from the Hezbollah threat in the North should a northern front open. They presented 3 options for the IDF regarding Gaza:
[1] A massive Israeli invasion and the difficulty of success given the 300 miles of Hamas tunnels and booby-traps and the potentially high number of Israeli losses, the loss of the 220 hostages, and the death and injury of thousands more Palestinian civilians;
[2] A tactical incursion into Gaza, meaning a limited operation of killing Hamas leadership in Gaza and outside Gaza in Qatar where the top Hamas leadership has lived and operated for years;
[3] Waiting until the lack of fuel that Hamas needs to support life in the tunnels in its operation of air compressors forces the 20,000 to 30,000 Hamas terrorist fighters to come to the surface and fight Israel in the open. Israel has said that it supports humanitarian aid to Gazans including water, food, and medicine, but not fuel because Hamas needs the fuel to support their tunnel existence and to build more missiles to be used against Israeli civilians. That fuel, however, is necessary also for humanitarian purposes in Gaza, for electricity and hospitals, etc.
Novick and Shusterman-Dvir said that in the early days after October 7, Israel’s “blood was boiling and Israelis had a difficult time considering what might be next in Gaza, and who or what organizations would govern.” They noted, properly, that Israel cannot ultimately destroy Hamas, that to think it can is an illusion, but Israel can destroy Hamas’ capacity to govern Gaza and remain a military threat to Israel. They confessed that this war will take time to fulfill Israel’s three broad goals above. By waiting to attack, the time gives negotiators in Qatar the opportunity to free more hostages. Israel does not, however, have years to wait, but in waiting weeks or a month or two, it can leverage the time needed to retrieve more of the hostages and enable Hamas fuel to run out thus forcing a land battle when massive numbers of Israel soldiers can put boots on the ground and have a far greater potential for success with far fewer losses.
These two experts did not believe that this war will go on for months. They reasoned that Israel will use a combination of the three options, each in its time. They were highly confident, despite the army’s failure in the initial hours of October 7 to protect Jews in the south, that the IDF is highly capable and will be successful in the execution of the war and the destruction of Hamas’ weapons depots, military centers, and many mid-level operatives, especially the thousand or more terrorists that entered Israel and attacked our people so mercilessly.
Jeremy questioned Novick and Shusterman-Dvir about the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. The first thing they said is “Israel is not Hamas. We don’t starve people, but time is running out. One hundred trucks of aid are required every day to enter Gaza.” The evidence suggests that Hamas and Egypt are holding up those trucks from entering Gaza for their own reasons.
They commented that allowing Hamas to free 2 hostages every 2 to 4 days is unacceptable. At some point, they said, Israel will demand the release of all the hostages without conditions.
Regarding the north – they noted that Hamas is likely frustrated that Hezbollah has not joined full force into the battle against Israel. Both Israel and Hezbollah are engaging with each other sending missiles back and forth. However, Hezbollah seems to be only trying to show that it is doing something without going too far and risking a full-scale war with Israel. America’s military presence in the region is a significant deterrent against both Hezbollah and Iran.
They expressed their concerns about the opening of another front in the West Bank. The IDF has arrested 1000 suspected Palestinians there of which 750 are likely Hamas.
Finally, they spoke about the options for the governance and control of Gaza after the war. They believed that some kind of coalition of forces ought to be established including the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, the UN, Saudi Arabia, and Israel to govern and help rebuild Gaza so that Islamic terrorists like Hamas do not rise to power again and threaten Israel.
At the conclusion of the webinar, I sensed that cooler heads are emerging on the Israeli leadership side, and though Israelis and so many American Jewish supporters of Israel want a massive retaliatory ground campaign, those in the military command are thinking more carefully than they may have been thinking in the initial days of Israeli and Jewish rage following October 7. The effect of the United States also cannot be underestimated. President Biden, Secretaries Blinken and Austin, are advising Israel, advocating for humanitarian aid being delivered to Gaza, and urging Israeli patience.
This hour-long webinar can be watched here – https://jstreet.org/j-streets-response-to-hamas-attacks-israeli-palestinian-crisis/
I recommend listening to the following:
The podcast “The Axe Files” with Ilana Dayan, a leading Israeli journalist in an extraordinary conversation with David Axelrod on the before and after October 7 massacre of Israeli Jews
The podcast “Politics War Room” with James Carville and Al Hunt in their interview this week with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Admiral James G. Stavridis
An interview by CNN’s Jake Tapper of the son of a founding member of Hamas who flipped years ago because of Hamas’ brutality, became an Israeli informant from within Hamas, and now is an American citizen living somewhere in the United States https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva=1#inbox?projector=1