Introductory Note: Jennifer Rubin, formerly an op-ed writer at The Washington Post and now Editor-in-Chief of The Contrarian Substack is always worth reading. Here is her description of what to watch in 2026. I recommend subscribing  Subscribe here . A disclaimer, Jen is a long-time friend. Let that, however, not dissuade you from reading what she and the other writers at The Contrarian write. She and her colleagues not only inform comprehensively, but their moral voice is clear and helpful as we confront the morass of events. Here is her piece published today – December 30, 2025:

“The 2026 midterms will be the most important of our lifetimes. The outcome will determine whether Donald Trump’s reign of terror continues unchecked, who will play critical roles in securing the 2028 presidential election, and which Democrats will be best positioned for the 2028 presidential race. Here are the most important—or most intriguing—races to watch.

Michigan Senate: Democrats Abdul El-Sayed (a progressive endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders); Rep. Haley Stevens (a pro-business moderate, but backed by the state AFL-CIO and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi); and charismatic State Sen. Mallory McMorrow will compete in the Democratic primary, seeking to replace retiring Democrat and shutdown capitulator Sen. Gary Peters. Stevens and McMorrow are leading in polling. The winner will face former congressman Mike Rogers. In a blue wave election, Democrats should be able to hold the seat, but Michigan remains as closely divided as any state. McMorrow—social media savvy, with strong ties to pro-democracy resistance fighters—would push to replace Senate Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). It is tempting to pigeon-hole Stevens as an establishment candidate, but she recently demonstrated her political moxie in introducing articles of impeachment against RFK, Jr. Stevens aligns with AIPAC on Israel; McMorrow’s approach is more nuanced.

Iowa Senate: Ordinarily not competitive, Iowa in a blue wave election could be in play, thanks to the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni “We are all going to die” Ernst and the horrid farm economy in the state. The Democratic field whittled down to three main intriguing contenders: State Rep. Josh Turek, Nathan Sage (businessman and veteran), and State Senator Josh Wahls. Turek has establishment backing but his personal disability story makes him a unique, compelling candidate; Sage and Wahls are insurgents, who have also pledged to remove Schumer. After the shutdown cave, Wahls stated: “We need a senator who works for Iowans, not for Chuck Schumer or Donald Trump or billionaires in big corporations.”

Texas Senate: This Democratic Senate primaries features two rising stars, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Tex.), forty-four, and Texas state Rep. James Talarico, thirty-six. The winner will face Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), a dull rubber stamp for radical policies and nominees of the sort he never used to support; Texas Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton, whose ethical travails, fondness for spurious, partisan lawsuits (including challenging the 2020 presidential outcome), anti-immigrant bias, and affinity for white supremacist rhetoric should make Texans cringe; or Rep. Wesley Hunt, whose entry splits traditional Republican voters, complicating Cornyn’s task. Crockett and Talarico are media-adept progressives. However, Crockett is fiery while Talarico’s cross-over message is rooted in faith. Crockett focuses relentlessly (and effectively) on Trump’s failings; Talarico (“Obama and Mr. Rogers,” said one voter) argues that America’s biggest divide is “top vs. bottom, not left vs. right.”

Ohio Senate: Again, Ohio would not normally be competitive (in part due to outrageous gerrymandering). However, former Senator and pro-union icon Sherrod Brown’s decision to run against JD Vance’s appointed replacement, Jon Husted (who invariably genuflects to Trump and has proven himself useless) means Democrats have a real shot. An October poll had Brown up by a point, fueling Democrats’ excitement in red Ohio.

Minnesota Senate: The Democratic primary winner will likely replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren) is more progressive than Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), but both denounced the shutdown collapse and called for Schumer to be ousted. Craig’s pragmatism allows her to work across party lines, but she nevertheless tenaciously defends the safety net and slams Trump’s ruinous tariffs. Flanagan, forty-six, presents herself as a next generation Democrat. Whoever wins will be a first for Minnesota: Flanagan is Native American; Craig, married with four children, would be the state’s first openly LGBTQ+ Senator.

Maine Senate: Democrats relish the chance to dump perpetually “concerned” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who repeatedly betrays pro-choice and pro-democracy voters (e.g., voting to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh despite her “concerns” about his potential to assist in overturning Roe v. Wade, and, more recently, confirming Russell Vought, RFK, Jr., and Pam Bondi). Widely mocked for voting to acquit Trump in his impeachment because “he’s learned his lesson”, she also could have stopped the big, ugly bill from ever reaching the floor.

Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, seventy-seven, (backed by Schumer and Kentucky and Michigan Democratic governors) faces outsider and veteran Graham Platner, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the primary. Scandals have plagued Platner—as Politico reported, he’ll have to answer to:

…an old Reddit account littered with racially insensitive, misogynistic, anti-police comments and homophobic slurs; a tattoo on his chest of the death’s-head design favored by the paramilitary forces that guarded Nazi concentration camps — and a fledgling political staff navigating the sort of internal strife that generally heralds doom.

Platner apologized, citing past substance abuse and mental health issues. Remarkably, all that has not ended his run. Economically stressed, besieged voters seem to sympathize with his harrowing combat experience and battle with PTSD. Still, the latest poll had Mills up 10 points.

North Carolina Senate: North Carolina Democrats are ecstatic about their candidate, former Governor Roy Cooper. The centrist, congenial, successful ex-governor will compete against Trump puppet and former RNC chairman Michael Whatley. If this Democrat cannot beat this Republican in this cycle, Democrats aren’t likely to win a federal statewide race with much ease anytime soon.

Alabama Governor: If IQ or public accomplishment determined the winner, former Senator Doug Jones (D) would smoke former football coach Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who many Democrats say is the dimmest bulb in the U.S. Senate—a particularly competitive field this term. Jones did pull off a stunning upset in 2017 against Roy Moore (hobbled by multiple, credible accusations of sexual misconduct, which he strenuously denied). Lightning will strike twice if voters decide their state could use a civil rights hero and competent, centrist Democrat rather than the winner of the Senate dunce cap.

California Governor: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Cal.) joined a crowded race, immediately surging to second place behind former congresswoman Katie Porter (whose “boss from hell” videos marred her appeal, contributing to a less favorable rating, though she still hovers roughly ten points above Swalwell). Although billionaire Tom Steyer, former L.A. mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former HHS secretary Xavier Becerra are also in the race, they trail Porter and the media-proficient, proven Trump-adversary of Swalwell. Democrats will compete in a nonpartisan primary alongside MAGA Republicans Chad Bianco, Riverside’s sheriff, and businessman/former British TV personality Steve Hilton. The top two will face off in November.

Ohio Governor: Few expected Ohio to have a competitive governor’s race. But two November polls and one in December showed likely GOP nominee Vivek Ramaswamy (a tech gadfly and MAGA extremist who quickly exited DOGE—or got dumped, depending on your view) statistically tied with the likely Democratic nominee Amy Acton (physician and former Ohio Department of Health Director). That suggests the playing field really has tilted—or Ramaswamy is truly off-putting, or both. Acton’s hard-scrabble upbringing in Youngstown, “overcoming abuse, hunger, and periods of homelessness,” according to her website) and background as a medical professional (she’s using “Dr.” in her campaign), populist, and working mom (with 6 kids) compares favorably to the profile of a rich tech-bro hostile to the safety net and the ACA. If the blue wave is strong enough, Ohio will have its first Democratic governor since 2011.

I love Dan Rather. He has lived and been in the news business long enough to offer us wisdom and perspective. Here is today’s “Steady” newsletter in which he wisely counsels “Don’t Panic”:

“Waking up to The New York Times headline: ‘State of the Race: A Dead Heat With 8 Weeks to Go’ is at the very least sobering, but by no means conclusive. It may even be a good thing.

To my Steady friends, the name of our newsletter says it all. We need to stay steady. The 2024 presidential election was always going to be tick-tight. The Democrats were never going to ‘Walz’ into the White House (pun intended), though he helps. You know what else helps? Having motivated supporters. A close poll can do a lot to activate the bench sitters. There is no room for even an ounce of complacency between now and November 5.

Since Barack Obama’s huge victory in 2008, the American electorate has become more polarized and calcified than ever before. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, 49% of registered voters are or lean Democrat, while 48% are or lean Republican. These numbers trend with what we have seen in the voting booth. In 2016, Donald Trump won by just 70,000 votes in the swing states that decided the election. In 2020, Joe Biden’s victory margin was even smaller. There is no reason to think 2024 will be any different in terms of winning margins.

Along with shrinking margins, the number of undecided voters making their choice during the last two weeks of the campaign has also decreased. Exit polls in 2016 put the number at 15%. In 2020, it was around 6%. At this point, with two months to go, about 15% are still undecided, of which three-quarters say they do have a preference. That leaves just 3% in the ‘don’t know’ category. In other words, a very small number of voters in swing states will decide this. If you truly “don’t know” at this point, we need to talk.

That is a lot of numbers to throw at you … but know that heading into the final stretch of the campaign, I’d rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. She has more room to move the needle. He has barely any.

For one, an anti-MAGA majority exists, even in swing states. The 2022 midterm elections proved this. Traditionally, midterms break hard for the party not in power. There was every reason to believe that would be the case in November 2022, with inflation high and Biden’s popularity low. Ultimately, Republicans, who predicted a ‘red wave,’ made only modest gains and lost several key races. The reason: A majority of Americans were determined to stop MAGA. 

Two, love him or hate him, Trump is a known commodity. Need I remind you that he has been running for president for nine years? Harris is comparatively a blank slate. More than a quarter of voters told The New York Times they want to know more about her.Many in that block of voters are from groups Harris has made gains with: younger voters, voters of color, and independent votes. The poll showed these voters are more eager to hear about her plans for the future than they are to hear from Trump.

Three, the Harris/Walz campaign is better organized and more disciplined, and Harris is a better candidate — on paper and in real life. She has energy and is relatable. And her room for growth well outpaces his. Remember, it need only be a point or two. She has a plan that appeals to the center. Whereas Donald Trump doesn’t seem to have any plan at all. At Tuesday night’s debate, Harris will have the opportunity to continue to tell her story and expand on her ideas for the country. By being herself, she can be the “normal” candidate. More voters may be looking for change, but change within the bounds of what has been considered normal.

The other day, our friends at Pod Save America reminded me of an adage attributed to Ben Wikler, the chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. In a play on an election truism, he said a ‘race is within the margin of effort.’ 

Effort.

Maximum effort is what it will take to keep Trump out of the White House and save democracy as we have known it. Every door knocked, every phone called, every text sent, every dollar given, every hour volunteered can make a difference. So will registering to vote and getting to the polls.

In a close race, good luck favors those who care the most and work the hardest.”

My Postscript:

I believe that VP Kamala Harris will do well tonight on the debate stage. Her clarity of thought, her ability to communicate her policies (see her website), her depth of knowledge of and understanding of what Americans want and need, her commitment to the law and the democratic order here and internationally, her compassion, upbeat and joyful countenance, her capacity to think on her feet and respond appropriately and with dignity to Trump’s misogyny, racism and low-life vulgarity, and her well-defined moral compass will persuade enough undecided voters across the political and demographic spectra to be persuasive that she can indeed be a good and competent President consistent with the constitutional history of the United States.

As Nancy Pelosi liked to say: “Don’t agonize – organize.”