“Can revival of the nuclear deal with Iran spark a new regional security dialogue? Are Americans – and U.S. policy makers – tired of the Middle East? Decades of conflict, along with reduced U.S. dependence on its oil, and a growing imperative to turn toward ‘great power competition’ with China and Russia, have reduced the appetite to stay engaged. … Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has asserted that the Biden Administration ‘…would be doing less not more in the Middle East.’
Yet desire does not always align with the demands of the moment. And the Trump administration’s high level of engagement in the region and disruptive policies have left Biden’s team with a transformed landscape. One element of Middle East policy holds the key: the Iran nuclear agreement, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Biden team likely will make it a priority. But how that plays out will determine if a ‘do less’ approach is achievable – or even desirable – in the coming four years.
President-elect Biden himself is up front about his intentions. He wants to return to the global nonproliferation agreement accomplished under his watch as Vice President, and restore its core formula: constraints on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic relief. When President Donald Trump came into office, the international consensus was that the deal was working, verified by multiple reports of international inspectors vouching for Iranian compliance.”
From “Reverse Engineering” – The Wilson Quarterly, Winter 2021 by Dalia Dassa Kaye
This carefully written comprehensive review of the issues and players concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal from which President Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States in 2018 is a must-read for anyone interested in the complexities of this matter that the Biden Administration now faces.
The author, Dalia Dassa Kaye, is a 2020-2021 Wilson Center Scholar. She was previously a Senior Political Scientist and Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation.
See – https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/back-to-the-future/reverse-engineering/
Strongly disagree with you on this. See https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-case-against-the-iran-deal/ar-BB1cXtGV and https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/case-against-iran-deal/617755/
A few things. The Obama administration did not consult with Israel before making the deal. My hope is that the Biden administration will do so. At least you have to admit that giving the fairly wide condemnation of the deal in Israel, things might look very different there than they do in LA. Most of the security establishment as well as think tanks in TA and Jlem are quite concerned about this. 2021 is not 2015. What I have yet to hear from defenders of the deal is asubstantive rebuttal to the arguments that the deal enables Iran to progress onall three components of a bomb, making it all but certain that by sunset timethey will be able to produce a nuclear arsenal.
People seem to have forgotten how to argue. Four years ofTrump have poisoned American discourse, on both sides of the line.
After Trump dropped out of the deal in 2018. The Iraniansmade a clear calculation to wait him out, on the hope that the Democrats wouldreturn and save them. Big surprise was that they greeted Biden’s election bybeginning to enrich toward 20 percent.
If the JCPOA is re-enacted, it will lead to war. That’s nota threat; that’s simply the reality. Israel will not allow this farce to berepeated. If Israel has to go to war alone, so be it. For Israelis, this is asexistential as it gets.
In case you missed this, Iran’s military spokesman, Gen.Abulfazl Shekarchi released this statement today (Holocaust Memorial Day):”Our aim is to wipe Zionist entity off the map. If Zionists make smallesterror, we shall raise first Haifa and then Tel Aviv to the ground.”
Warm regards,
Fred
PS – Actually Jon, now that you are retired, might you not spend more time in Israel? BTW – We have a very nice furnished apartment in Jerusalem that after my retirement this year, we are planning in living in it half time. Great location, right next to the Dan Panorama on Derech Hevron. Keep this in mind is you wish to spend some time there next year.
The latest from Blinken
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability/