A veteran journalist wrote to me (and I assume to many other leaders in the American Jewish community) earlier this week requesting my thoughts about what “winning” the Israel-Hamas War might look like. This is my response:
Dear …
Thank you for asking.
First, it’s important to emphasize that I’m not an Israeli citizen. My kids don’t serve in the Israeli military. I don’t pay Israeli taxes though I contribute financially to multiple Israeli causes that promote democracy, justice, religious pluralism and peace in the Jewish state. Only Israeli citizens have the responsibility to determine the nature of Israel’s policies in war and peace and on matters of security as they are the ones who must live directly with the consequences of the decisions they take. Yet, I have thoughts that I have every right to share with Israelis and Israel’s leadership about Israeli policies that I believe compromise Israel’s own liberal and enlightened principles as articulated in its Declaration of Independence. Not only that. I also have that right because what Israel does affects directly the security, standing and identity of Diaspora Jewry as is now so very clear post-October 7. The dramatic rise in the United States and around the world of antisemitism, anti-Zionism and anti-Israel sentiment challenges our Jewish security and identity.
In answering your question I’m hard-pressed to imagine a “win” in this war. Too many Israelis are dead, injured and traumatized. Too many thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians have died and been injured and southern Israeli communities and the Gaza Strip lay in ruins. Gazans are facing widespread famine and disease. Israeli society, despite the unity of the people in the initial few months of this war is still deeply polarized between right-wing super-nationalist settlers, extremist ultra-Orthodox Jews and their sympathizers as opposed to the majority of Israeli citizens who are politically, religiously and culturally centrist, center-left or center-right.
For the Jewish people to claim any kind of a “win” in the context of this awful war after October 7, however, I would hope that the following would materialize, sooner rather than later. I am well aware of the obstacles within Israeli public opinion based on a new survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute on Tuesday, February 20 as reported by Haaretz (I attach that article below with a few notes of introduction).
Here is what I believe, taken all together, that would constitute a “win” for Israel in this war:
-The return of all Israeli and international hostages to their families and communities as soon as possible;
-The defanging of Hamas as a military threat to Israel and as a brutal autocratic extremist Islamic governing authority over Gaza that subjugates its own people and has brought about the destruction of Gaza and the death and injury of tens of thousands of its own citizens;
-A ceasefire agreement based on the above;
-Massive humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza to stave off famine and disease;
-The holding of new Israeli elections ASAP resulting in the formation of a moderate and centrist ruling coalition government that includes at least one Arab Party – without Benjamin Netanyahu anywhere near the Prime Minister’s office and without super-nationalist, settler, racist right-wing and ultra-Orthodox political parties as part of the ruling government coalition;
-The holding of new refashioned Palestinian Authority elections ASAP and the formation of a moderate, non-violent and compromising government coalition – without the inclusion of Hamas or any militant political party that rejects the right of the Jewish people to a state in the Land of Israel-Palestine;
-Israel’s public endorsement of a pathway to the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state alongside Israel in the West Bank and Gaza with its capital in East Jerusalem and the right of return of Palestinians to the State of Palestine and not Israel;
-The restoration of Israel’s international image as a nation that values democracy, pluralism, justice, human rights and peace with the Palestinian people and Israel’s neighbors;
-The Arab League’s acceptance of the State of Israel and the establishment of full diplomatic, economic and cultural relations between all western-aligned Arab nations and the Jewish state;
-An international commitment to assist the Palestinian Authority (and not Hamas) in rebuilding Gaza, and an international commitment to assist in rebuilding southern Israeli communities devastated by Hamas’ terrorist attack on October 7;
-A dramatic decrease in antisemitism abroad especially in the United States and on college and university campuses that has spiked dramatically since October 7;
-An impetus for young liberal American Jews to learn Israeli history, culture and politics and spend time living in the Jewish state thereby affirming their emotional and moral ties with Israelis and the Jewish state.
If Israelis and Palestinians, with the support of the United States, Arab League, UK, EU, and UN could embrace all the above, it would be a “win” for Israel, for the Palestinian people and for the western world.
Introductory notes to the following Haaretz Poll of Current Israeli Opinion:
Current Israeli public opinion is far from acceptance of many of the positions I list above. The details of the most recent poll – including Israeli Jews and Israeli Arab citizens – are reviewed in the following Haaretz news item.
It has to be understood when reading the details of this poll that Israel is still at war and the hostages are still being held by Hamas. Israelis are rightly focused on these immediate challenges and the majority of the population is not projecting too far out into the future. However, Israeli dissatisfaction with PM Netanyahu’s extremist right-wing super-nationalist government has grown dramatically since October 7. Saturday night protests that characterized the pre-October 7 period over almost a full year are growing weekly and calling simultaneously for negotiations that would lead to the return of the remaining hostages and for new Israeli elections.
It is estimated that the current Israeli coalition government would win only in the low 40s the number of Knesset seats (as opposed to 64 today out of 120 total Knesset mandates) if a new election were to be held today and that the opposition led by Benny Gantz of the National Unity Party would win close to 70 Knesset seats. However, PM Netanyahu has no intention of resigning or calling for new elections not only because he wants to hold onto power but also to stay out of jail should he be convicted of the three crimes of which he has been indicted. The political parties in his right-wing government know that if the government were to fall each likely would find itself with fewer seats in the next Knesset and consequently outside the future ruling coalition government. There is little to encourage any of those parties to call for new elections before the next scheduled election in October 2026.
It is likely that once the dust of the fighting in this war begins to settle there will be room for Israelis to consider more expansively what might be Israel’s future with the Palestinians and the wider Middle East.
This is clearly a fraught time and most everyone in Israel recognizes that there is no return to October 6. The massacre on October 7 and the ensuing war may well be regarded historically as among the most important inflection points in the 75-year history of the State of Israel. Those of us who love Israel and believe in Israel’s promise despite everything that has happened since October 7 must do everything we can to stay close to our Israeli brothers and sisters while advocating alongside those in Israel itself for policies that will assure Israel’s future democracy and character as a Jewish state. Too much is at stake for Israel and the Jewish people around the world to do otherwise. We need to remember as well that the State of Israel is the most remarkable achievement of the Jewish people in the past 2000 years.
Here is the Haaretz article and the most recent poll of Israeli citizens:
Most Israelis Say ‘Absolute Victory’ in Gaza Unlikely, According to New Poll
Haaretz | Israel News – February 21, 2024
The term ‘absolute victory’ was deliberately chosen as it has become a phrase favored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during press conferences and foreign language interviews, although he is disinclined to define what that actually means
Most Israelis do not believe an “absolute victory” in the war in Gaza is likely. This according to a new survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute on Tuesday. The survey, which was conducted on the internet and by telephone, polled 510 men and women in Hebrew and 102 in Arabic as a representative sample of the entire adult population of Israel aged 18 and older.
An End to the War?
Of those polled, 51 percent of Jewish respondents and 77.5 percent of Arab respondents said there is a low likelihood of achieving absolute victory. The term “absolute victory” was deliberately chosen as it has become a phrase favored by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during press conferences and foreign language interviews, although he is disinclined to define what that actually means strategically.
Among the Israeli Jews surveyed, those on the political right tended to agree with Netanyahu (55 percent), saying there is a high likelihood of achieving “absolute victory,” while the majority of the left (84 percent) and in the center (63 percent) said there is a low likelihood.
With the possibility of a total military victory unlikely in the eyes of most participants, the survey also asked their opinion regarding a political agreement to the end of war.
The question was posed as “Would you support or oppose an agreement to end the war which includes the release of all the hostages, long-term military quiet with guarantees from the United States, and a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, in return for the release by Israel of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, an extended ceasefire, and agreement to the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state in the long term?”
Among Jewish respondents, a majority of 55 percent oppose such an agreement, but the share of those who support it increased from 29 percent when the question was asked in January to 37 percent in February. In the Arab sample, 77 percent are in favor of a political agreement and only 9 percent are opposed.
Humanitarian Aid?
Regardless of the final outcome of the war, the question of humanitarian aid remains relevant, as the threat of famine and disease currently looms large over the population of Gaza.
With UNRWA currently embroiled in controversy, survey participants were asked their opinion regarding whether Israel should allow the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza residents at this time, via international bodies that are not linked to Hamas or UNRWA.
A majority of Jewish respondents (68 percent) oppose the transfer of humanitarian aid even under these conditions, while a large majority of Arab respondents (85 percent) support it. In recent months, there have been regular demonstrations held at the Kerem Shalom crossing, with protestors attempting to block aid trucks from entering the Gaza Strip.
Here again, there seems to be a strong correlation between political affiliation and one’s answer to the question, with 59 percent of those on the Left supporting allowing international bodies to transfer aid and 80 percent of those on the Right opposed.
Survey respondents who identified themselves as Center were almost evenly divided on the issue (44 percent support, 51.5 percent oppose, 4.5 “don’t know”).
Establishment of a Palestinian State?
On Wednesday, the Knesset voted to approve the government’s decision to oppose any unilateral declaration of the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The vote took place amid calls by a growing number of international leaders for the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state. Respondents were asked where they fall on this question, with two-thirds of the Jewish sample opposing such a proposal and a large majority (73 percent) of Arabs supporting it.
The survey also questioned whether those surveyed believed that the establishment of a Palestinian state would lead to an increase in Palestinian terrorism against Israel.
Among Arab respondents, 41 percent thought that terrorism would cease altogether. It is worth noting that 35 percent of Arabs polled selected the “don’t know” option. Among Jews, the most common view (44 percent) was that terrorism would become even stronger.
Protests Returning?
Over the past several weeks, the once-massive protests against Netanyahu’s government, which were largely put on hold after Hamas’ attacks on October 7, have begun to return.
Survey respondents were asked if they thought the demonstrations would get back to their pre-war numbers with 60 percent anticipating they would come back and 30 percent saying they do not foresee such a return. On this issue, there was almost no difference between the percentage of Jews (60 percent) and Arab (64 percent) who believe the public protests will come surging back.
Compared to the high percentage of respondents who believe that wide-scale protests will re-erupt, a much smaller share think or are certain that they themselves would participate. As expected, those on the left (in the Jewish sample) consider themselves most likely to take part; 59 percent as opposed to 31 percent of the center and only 13 percent on the right.
What’s Next for the Northern Front?
As tens of thousands of residents from Israel’s northern border communities enter their fifth month of evacuation, the survey asked about future security in the north and their eventual return.
Respondents were given two possibilities for ensuring a safe return home for northern residents: an internationally mediated political agreement that distances Hezbollah from the border or an all-out attack on Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
There was a large difference between Jewish and Arab responses to this question, with 53 percent of Jewish favoring an all-out attack and 69 percent of Arabs supporting a political agreement.
Among Jewish responses, a majority (61.5 percent) on the left support the diplomatic option that distances Hezbollah from the border, a view they share with about half of those in the center (51 percent). On the right, a solid majority (65 percent) are in favor of an Israeli offensive.